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Good thoughts overall.

But one question, how does any futurist, especially a historian,
predict a "move away from the exurbs, partly due to rising energy
costs?" Ms. Cohen is not the only expert to make this claim.

Since post WWII exurbs (commuter suburbs) have been a haven for people
to get more for their dollar overall, whether it be a new home, an
apartment or the prices they pay for goods and services. It's why they
exist.

Now, in major metros across the country, these bedroom communities are
seeing significant rises in mass commuter transit services – trains,
buses, etc. and they continue to be a significant value vs. close in
urban communities. The clustering of exurbs also turn neighboring
suburbs into significant urban centers.

The increased regulation of the financial sector, making it more
difficult to get a mortgage, as noted in the article, will increase
leased living for a large segment of the population, driving up prices
for renters who will look for values in the exurbs.

More people living within their means vs. being in a mortgage that's
beyond what they can afford, will lead to more disposable income,
savings and better overall credit scores.

All should lead to greater demand for new starter homes and growth in areas where housing is cheapest – exurbs.

We have white papers on the subjects of Superior Recession Proof Design
and Marketing to Gen Y based on our experience and research into the
subjects from our globally ranked research facility.

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 While the recession has two-thirds of consumers making shopping lists before they go to the store." Over 75% of retail customers search and form their product opinions on-line. Brand web sites are an important part of this gathering process as is social networking and Mobile is quickly finding an important place as Apps like Deal Chime with alternative media trump FSI reach by 10x for the same cost and offer geo-based promotions and coupons based on consumer behavior. We have a few white papers on the subject based on our research and experience in the space – The 5 Design Pillars For Website Credibility and the 9 Step Guide To Social Networking. 

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 All good moves ahead for Wal-Mart, especially on the mobile front, which will be the number one way consumers access the internet within the next year.

All the better, with an App like Deal Chime, Wal-Mart customers can find the best prices for whatever they search for on their phone, real time and carry their offer with them into the store on their phone, or even better, they can be notified of store specials while they are walking in the store.

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 Good commentary and insights on women and how they shop. I'll pick up your book.

I do disagree that, "There's no real training in most companies on
gender differences. And women get to these [senior] positions in the
corporate world and they might feel uncomfortable pursuing what in
their colleagues' eyes is a feminine agenda."

My experience is, successful companies have a relationship with their
customers and do everything they can to understand and remain relevant
with them. Those that don't, quickly fall by the wayside.

We have a white paper, "7 Keys To Mom's Heart," that is derived from
our research and experience working with clients who are Mom centric.

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If you don't believe TV is going the way of newspaper, think about
this. TV's value is in its tight rein on the distribution of
intellectual content. As this article notes – It controls when and
where content is viewed and how people view it. That is similar to the
newspaper industry, but the newspaper industry has always played fairly
well in the sandbox, sharing their story with multiple sources. The
recorded music industry on the other hand, has a very similar tight
control model. Talk to anybody in and around that business and you'll
find all the attorneys and legal wrangling in the world can't help your
legal control of distribution when the entire world changes consumption
habits.

When released, the 700 MHZ spectrum being vacated by television
broadcasting as it migrates to HD, will create an omnipresent "high
speed" spectrum with much greater bandwidth than currently provided.
This one move alone will level the current TV and telecom industries,
especially if Google gets its wish for consumers to choose and change
access providers at a moments notice.

Hand held devices will become the number one way consumers will access
the web in the next 12 months. Web TV is sure to follow on hand held as
the device is always on and always with you, leading to more viewing
opportunities, when and where you want them.

Over the next few years, TV seasons and schedules are going away and
quality TV content consumption will begin to resemble patterns similar
to the video game industry with hype and heavy consumption around
releases, but viewership will continue on-demand into perpetuity.

Content providers will have a direct pipe straight to consumers through
the internet. Better quality content will have a revenue model, or
there won't be better quality content, because the budgets won't
support it. It's easy to assume there will always be demand for better
content and some folks will either pay or watch an ad for the access.

There won't be room for big networks who try to be everything to everybody while living by FCC and general market standards.

Interactivity from platform players like Klickable.tv will empower
marketers to truly have a granular model that will take advantage of
product placement and key moments in episodes where viewer engagement
is highest.

Content will be extremely important, but so too will ease and
availability of interface both on the web and on hand held. Because in
the end the game will shift to complete access controlled by the
consumer.

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The hotel industry continues to adapt to customer needs, moving away
from flagship hotel and timeshare brands in premium locations, to more
cost conscious self-serve, convenience models.

Rewards point programs and the secret silver bullet – "stay three
nights earn one free" during a limited calendar period, designed to
steal share and compress time between stays during key periods, are
much less relevant. Being in close proximity to the meeting location at
a value price, in a value-based property that doesn't feel like one, is
taking over the lion-share of the industry.

The "lite self-serve" properties build loyalty with micro marketing.
Understanding their best and near best customers specific needs;
Finding out Why, When and How they travel and what tools they need for
the specific location they frequent. The same model used by their
upscale brethren like The Ritz Carlton. And because their customers are
tech savvy and are more closely managing their own travel, special
tools like smart phone reservations, booking and checkout are all the
more important.

Pre-recession drivers for business travelers were;
1) Location
2) Availability
3) Rewards
4) Price
5) Convenience

Today's drivers are;
1) Price,
2) Location and
3) Convenience

The lite segment with brands like Hilton's Embassy Suites, Homewood
Suites and Garden Inn and Marriott's Residence Inn and Courtyards once
solved for location, availability and extended stays at a lower
overhead than the standard flagship brands could offer.

Today the segment is quickly becoming the workhorse of the industry.
Hence new entrants from Hyatt including Summerfield Suites and Place,
Marriott's Spring Hill Suites, Hilton's Home 2 Suites and Starwood's
Aloft inspired by The W and Element inspired by Westin. Price typically
includes a free breakfast, the "suite" versions include kitchens,
location is specifically focused on key surrounding businesses and
industries and all include work support amenities, in-room and lobby
work stations and free Wi-Fi.

This is a drastic change from just a few years ago when you had to pay
or earn status to use the "Business Floor" and plug in your computer in
your room for a connection that was an incremental service charge.

Self-service hotels are also being used and promoted for vacations, as
people with less funds to vacation are seeking out the good values,
even if the locations are often not typically in close, convenient
proximity to vacation destinations.

The new world order for the hotel business has an upside in that it
requires less capital and risk to launch new properties. Thus making it
easier to adapt to change.

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Grande Distribution.

Distribution has been overlooked in the "coffee wars." But it shouldn't, here's why;

Dunkin' Donuts has launched plans to grow beyond their core markets in the NE and Chicago.

This aggressive roll out was timed well as Dunkin' Donuts not only has
premium coffee at a value price, but also large metro distribution and
a strong breakfast food menu enjoyed by many of the same demos as
Starbucks and differentiated from McDonald's menu.

Dunkin's expansion was designed to grow new markets into a truly
national network with a very loyal customer base that follows Dunkin'
in markets where it has substantial distribution.

Dunkin' carefully aligned with blue chip franchisees with stellar
credit and cash on hand. Dunkin' did a good job of lining up favorable
financing for their best new partners, so that those partners wouldn't
have to tie up a lot of their own personal cash into market build outs,
to encourage more aggressive expansion goals.

But Dunkin's expansion credit crumbled. Some of their important
franchisee partners have gotten out their contracts and are in the
process of selling the stores they developed, simply because they
cannot operate in large metro markets without substantial scale, which
has been slowed or halted by the credit crunch.

That leaves in a national coffee war, Starbuck's and McDonald's with
Dunkin' a strong regional player in many core markets and expansion on
a more distant horizon.

McDonald's sales have surged in the recession, Starbuck's have
nosedived. McDonald's doesn't need to open new stores, they are the
heavyweight champion of distribution, they've built out McCafe's in a
good portion of their footprint and they aren't closing many if any
existing stores.

Starbuck's, who also had heavyweight distribution, has been closing
stores, lowering their prices on their super premium coffee and
reducing their already weak food offering.

The retrench moves by Starbuck's and their inability or willingness to
expand their menu beyond core coffee drinks means McDonald's is easily
the Grande of all things coffee, no matter how you order it.

If Dunkin' can get their expansion financing and partners in order,
they've got a good run in front of them, for they have alternative
morning foods McDonald's has never done well with on a national basis -
Donuts and Wraps, all of which also trump Starbuck's current
go-to-market strategy.

Starbuck's best hope is to take calculated risks and not cut back on
distribution or the price of their coffee, but instead work on their
food menu to offer differentiated, value priced food, through their
distribution channel.

Procter and Gamble uses price brands to drive category traffic and
premium brands to deliver margins. Starbuck's could use value priced
food in the same way to drive more traffic and use premium priced
coffee to deliver their margins.

The French bistro model and heavy distribution served Starbuck's well.
Why can't the value priced French bakery, with super premium coffee all
driven by sizable distribution?

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Understanding the belief system of the social network community your
targeting is key to building affinity. For Facebook, adding real
tangible value to the experience of communicating to your friends and
family is extremely important.

That means Sprint is really only talking to their existing customers,
because they offer nothing compelling that will improve the experience.

The key takeaway being, "We have Facebook, another good reason not to switch from Sprint."

We have a white paper on the subject.

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Game Changing Insight -

Smart phone consumers view their phones as an internet tool and should
be supported as so by taking a page from the PC/Mac market.

Acquisition Options could include;

1) Sell the product at a reduced price for a contract or offer it at full price for no contract.

2) Heavily promote the free software upgrades vs. the cost of a Mac or PC is a huge value and should be touted as so.

3) Sell hardware upgrade memberships – insurance for $10 a month that
allows customers to upgrade to the latest technology for a flat price
of $149.

4) Lease the equipment for $24.99 a month. After 12 months, the equipment can be turned in for a new lease.

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Smart phone penetration, including the iPhone, is reaching and will soon
surpass that of PCs, making smart phones the #1 way that US consumers
access the internet by 2010.

GPS and Apps are quickly changing the way people interact with the web.
Higher bandwidth will enable hand-held video to become common place.

The release of the 700 MHZ spectrum being vacated by television
broadcasting as it migrates to HD will create an omnipresent "high
speed" spectrum with much greater bandwidth than current wireless
carriers offer.

Soon "Broadband Everywhere" and "TV everywhere" will be coming to your phone.

That said, for the immediate future, shopper marketing apps like Deal
Chime, that simplify daily life decisions based on geo-location, should
be on every marketers to-do list.

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